Speaking at Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum, Marek Belka, former Prime Minister of Poland, outlined a European perspective on pressing global economic and political challenges, emphasizing the ripple effects of U.S. policy changes and Europe’s urgent need to address its structural weaknesses. Belka critiqued the Trump administration’s approach to trade and industrial revival while urging Europe to bolster its resilience through strategic reforms.

    Belka opened by questioning the coherence of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, arguing that tariffs and efforts to revive manufacturing reflect a misguided diagnosis of America’s economic challenges. “Tariffs cannot resolve chronic trade deficits rooted in domestic imbalances like low savings rates,” he noted, adding that erratic policy shifts have created global uncertainty, deterring investment and weakening the dollar’s stability as a reserve currency. While acknowledging deep social inequities in the U.S., Belka stressed that America remains a technological leader, contrary to Trump’s “crisis” narrative.

    Turning to Europe, Belka identified stagnation as its core long-term challenge, driven by aging populations and sluggish productivity growth. Immediate threats, he said, stem from global volatility, particularly a U.S.-China trade conflict. “Europe would become a battlefield, not a winner or loser,” he warned, advocating for proactive measures to avoid collateral damage.

    To counter U.S. protectionism, Belka urged Europe to deepen trade negotiations, including offering limited agricultural market access to the U.S. as a “sweetener,” despite political resistance from powerful farming lobbies. He emphasized the need for a “grand bargain” with China. “China now produces high-tech goods and has a mutual interest in protecting intellectual property,” he said, calling for balanced agreements to improve European market access.

    Despite institutional fragmentation, Belka remained cautiously optimistic, citing Europe’s history of advancing through crises. “Enhanced cooperation among ‘coalitions of the willing’ may be imperfect, but it’s better than stagnation,” he said, predicting uneven progress as member states prioritize national interests.

    In closing, Belka underscored the urgency of adaptive strategies amid a shifting global order. “Europe must act decisively—not just react—to safeguard its economic and geopolitical relevance,” he concluded, urging leaders to balance pragmatism with long-term vision.

    The speech highlighted Europe’s delicate balancing act: navigating external pressures while confronting internal divisions to secure a sustainable future in an increasingly turbulent world.